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Market Sizing & Estimation
Sizing the market for a new product, or estimating the number of active users, is a classic test of structured thinking and logical estimation.
Top-Down Approach
Start with the total population (e.g., 330M in the US), filter by relevant demographics, adjust for usage frequency, and apply purchase value metrics.
Bottom-Up Approach
Start with an individual unit (e.g., a single retail checkout lane), calculate hourly throughput, scale to daily capacity, and aggregate across the region.
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